Weekly Recap: Ripple won final OCC approval

Token Metrics Daily Pulse - 2026-11-01 — Your week in crypto: the stories that actually moved it.

The Week's Biggest Story

Tuesday: Ripple won final OCC approval for Ripple National Trust Bank to hold reserves behind $2.6B RLUSD.

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Market Snapshot

Metric	Value	24h Change
BTC Price	$77,488.00	▲ 0.3%
ETH Price	$2,251.00	▲ 1.1%
SOL Price	$96.00	▼ -0.4%
Total Market Cap	$2.6T	–
BTC Dominance	60%	–
DeFi TVL	$84.94B	▲ 1.2%
Stablecoin Supply	$299.68B	▼ -0.3%
Fear & Greed Index	30 (Fear)	Unchanged

Bitcoin barely moved near $77k while Ethereum rose about 1% to $2.3k. Cash kept leaving as stablecoin supply slipped and Bitcoin control held near 60%, so bounces need fresh buyers to stick.

What Prediction Markets Think

Bettors see 35% odds for Bitcoin above $78k on Nov 1 and 84% for above $76k on Nov 2. The read is near-term calm with little room for a miss.

Market	Prob	Vol
ODDS Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 1? Money is betting only a 35% chance for above $78k on Nov 1, a cautious read with Bitcoin near $77k.	35% probability	$23K volume
VOLUME Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1? Money is betting a 22% chance of a dip to $76k, low fear of a flush into the weekend.	22% probability	$155K volume
SHIFT Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on November 2? Money cut bets for that $2.1k to $2.2k band to 16%, a sharp cool-off in tight-range bets.	16% probability	$3K volume

Data from Polymarket prediction markets • Live odds

The Week's 5 Biggest Stories

1 Tuesday: Binance filed for a Brazil license. Friday is the deadline. 22 assets face delisting.

Binance faces a Friday deadline in Brazil. Bitcoin sits under $80k. Watch whether US ETF inflows can stack consecutive positive days to signal a real return of buyers.

2 Tuesday: Bitcoin slipped below $80k as the Fed meeting began and crypto skipped the Asian tech rally.

Stocks got buying interest and crypto did not. That split tells you this is not broad risk appetite. It is crypto specific caution into the rate decision. Holding under $80k keeps sellers in charge until macro gives a reason to buy.

If the Fed statement shifts rate bets, watch whether Bitcoin reclaims $80k. That level is the near term line between weak and steady.

3 Tuesday: US spot Bitcoin ETFs added back $110M after a $774M exit, leaving October still down $202M.

One green day does not fix the month. Funds bled hard then got a small refill. Ark Invest read the same price action and sold $16M of its own Bitcoin ETF while buying $5.2M of Circle shares. That is a shift from raw Bitcoin exposure toward stablecoin rails.

If ETFs post three straight days of inflows, that would signal buyers are back. If outflows resume, the monthly hole gets deeper.

4 Friday: Strategy Sold 5,552 Bitcoin and Bought 7,218 in Q3 as a $21B Markup Drove Profit

5 Thursday: NYSE owner ICE wants US Hyperliquid perps. Stan Druckenmiller is backing it. CFTC approval is next.

Watch whether CFTC signals on Hyperliquid perps arrive while Bitcoin holds $81k into the Oct 30 price test, since approval would confirm the Wall Street bid and delay would leave thin liquidity in charge.

5 Quick Hits

Friday: Sentiment crashed 21 points overnight. The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 51 (Neutral) to 30 (Fear) in a single day. Stablecoin supply fell about $3.5B this week. L2 TVL is down roughly 5% on the week, with World Chain down 24%, OP Mainnet down 14%, and ZKsync Era down 12%. A 21-point single-day sentiment drop is not noise. That's the kind of move that happens when something breaks a narrative people were holding onto. The stablecoin supply shrinking at the same time means cash isn't sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy the dip - it's leaving the system. L2 TVL dropping across the board, with some chains down double digits on the week, adds a structural layer to what looks like a sentiment-driven selloff. The one exception is Polygon PoS, which is actually up slightly on the week. Divergences like that are worth watching.
Saturday: Tether made $1.5B in Q3. Reserves nearly doubled to $8B. Bitcoin stash sits at $8.4B. Watch whether stablecoin supply stops falling over the coming week, since Tether's $8B buffer means little if system cash keeps leaving.
Wednesday: Bitcoin retook $81k. Chip stocks led the bounce. ETF buyers are back. Watch if Bitcoin holds $80k through the Fed decision with a third day of ETF inflows, or the $81k bounce fades on thin liquidity.
Friday: Coinbase posted $719M in Q3 net income - but $715M of that came from gains on crypto it holds, not from running its exchange. Adjusted net income was $78M. Net income jumped 66% year-over-year. Strip out the crypto gains and Coinbase's core business made $78M last quarter. That's not bad, but it's a very different story than the headline number. The exchange is essentially a leveraged bet on crypto prices dressed up as a financial services company. When prices rise, the P&L looks great. When they don't, the core business has to carry itself. The more interesting number buried in the earnings: prediction markets are now running at a $200M annual revenue pace, which is a real business that doesn't depend on crypto prices going up.
Thursday: Hedge funds left the Bitcoin ETF trade as sovereign wealth stepped in, while Bitcoin sits back under $84k-85K. Here's the deal: fast money rented the dip and patient money bought it. ETF demand has faded from the September high, yet each dip now realizes smaller losses and volatility is back to summer 2023 levels. That mix looks like sellers getting tired, not buyers getting bold. Stablecoin supply fell about $3.4B on the week, so cash on the sidelines shrank while Bitcoin held near $81k.

Risk Map

01 Crowded short-term bets on Bitcoin

Money prices Bitcoin above $76k on Nov 2 at 84% while spot sits near $77k. When many bet the same way for this weekend, a small slip can force fast selling.

02 Cash leaving the system

Stablecoin supply fell about $4B on the week to about $299B. When cash leaves, dips get less support and rallies fade faster.

VIEW Bottom line

The read: Tether is rich but system cash is leaving and weekend bets are crowded. That flips if stablecoin supply starts rising over the coming week.

Catalysts (Next 7 Days)

📅 Bitcoin Nov 2 price bet settles Nov 2

Market prices Bitcoin above $76k at 84%; settlement shows if crowded near-term bets held.

📅 Bitcoin Nov 3 price bet settles Nov 3

Only 20% odds for above $80k; a push there would force short-term bets to reprice.

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What to Watch Next

Watch whether stablecoin supply stops falling over the coming week, since Tether's $8B buffer means little if system cash keeps leaving.

Sources

Disclosures

Not investment advice. For education only. Crypto is high risk. We may earn affiliate revenue from some links.