US midterm elections 2026 as it happened: Democrats win

1 Democrats won both the House and Senate in Tuesday's midterms. Analysts are now asking what a blue Congress means for crypto law. That law had been moving under the prior split.

If the new panel chairs back the market structure bill in public, that would suggest the law stays on track. If they reopen the core definitions or push new amendments to protect consumers, expect the timeline to slip past 2027.

2 Bitcoin ETFs shed $1.2B in the most recent reporting period. Bitwise analyst André Dragosch called the selling short-term. He said big holders have mostly held their positions.

Over a billion dollars leaving Bitcoin ETFs in one stretch sounds alarming. The nuance Bitwise points to: big holders didn't sell. Retail sentiment drove the outflows. That's a different kind of outflow. Think of it as tourist money leaving, not the locals. The Glassnode data from earlier this week adds texture. Perpetual sellers drove the recent slide below $80k. Yet longs kept paying up in funding. Options traders bought protection. That's a market that's nervous but hasn't fully given up. The buyers who came in one to three months ago are now near breakeven around $78k. That level matters more than the ETF headline number. If it flips to resistance, the next support is lower and less clear.

If ETF flows turn positive for three or more days in a row, watch that. If BTC also holds above $78k, it would suggest tourist money is back and the dip was absorbed. If outflows continue into next week and BTC drops below $76k, the short-term case gets harder to defend.

3 Circle beat profit and sales estimates on soaring USDC transaction volume. Then it said it quietly cut about 5% of its staff in the same quarter. Sales were up 17% to $865M, boosted by its ARC token presale.

Beating estimates while cutting staff is the classic profitable-but-leaning-in move. Circle is not a struggling company. Sales are growing, and USDC transaction volume is the reason. The layoffs, buried in a footnote to the Q3 results, look like a margin move, not a distress signal. The ARC token presale lift is worth flagging separately. It means a chunk of that sales growth came from a one-time event. That is not from USDC's recurring interest income. Strip that out, and the core business is still healthy. But the headline 17% growth overstates the run rate. The more important backdrop: Circle is now a public company. It is working with a Congress that just changed hands. Its policy ties need rebuilding.

The Q4 report will show whether USDC transaction volume holds without the ARC presale boost. If recurring sales grow at a similar rate without a one-time boost, that is a good sign. It would confirm the core business is speeding up on its own.