BTC long-term holders are cracking at $68K

Lead Change

BTC long-term holders showing strain. $54K flagged as next support. Only 1 narrative in the green this week: Prediction Markets.

Market Snapshot

Metric	Value	24h Change
BTC	$67,793	▼ -1.35%
ETH	$1,967	▼ -0.31%
SOL	$84.99	▼ -0.46%
Total Market Cap	$2.40T	Risk-off
BTC Dominance	56.4%	Holding
Total DeFi TVL	$95.9B	─ Flat
24h Volume	$95.0B	Moderate

Broad risk-off tone with BTC sliding alongside tech stocks and gold. BTC dominance at 56.4% suggests alts aren't catching a bid either.

Narratives Snapshot

Narrative	Value	7d Change
Prediction Markets	$5.08B	▲ +1.90%
Real World Assets (RWA)	$51.3B	▼ -16.18%
Meme	$39.4B	▼ -16.44%
Artificial Intelligence (AI)	$21.5B	▼ -22.93%
DePIN	$8.5B	▼ -26.43%
Gaming (GameFi)	$5.1B	▼ -27.03%

It's a bloodbath across narratives. Prediction Markets is the lone survivor at +1.90%.

What Prediction Markets Think

Prediction markets paint a picture of low expectations. ETH ATH odds at just 7.5%, and the Fed is priced to stay patient.

Market	Prob	Δ 24h	Vol
SIGNAL Ethereum all-time high by June 30, 2026? Money is betting 92.5% against ETH reaching a new ATH by mid-year. With ETH at $1,967, that would require roughly a 150% rally. The market thinks that's fantasy.	8% probability	─	$99K volume
SIGNAL Will there be no change in Fed rates after June 2026? A 36.5% chance the Fed holds steady through June. Combined with only 3.4% odds of 6 cuts this year, the market is pricing a Fed that's in no rush. That's not great for risk assets hoping for a liquidity tailwind.	37% probability	─	$97K volume

Data from Polymarket prediction markets • Prices reflect real-money bets

5 Changes That Matter

1 Bitcoin's long-term holders are showing weakening accumulation, with on-chain data pointing to $54,000 as the next support if $65,000 breaks.

Here's the thing about long-term holders: they're the bedrock. When they start distributing instead of accumulating, it's like watching the foundation of a building develop cracks. You don't panic immediately, but you stop adding floors. The February sell-off has shifted on-chain behavior from "buy the dip" to "maybe this IS the dip." BTC is sitting near $68K and the conviction layer underneath is thinning. That $54K level isn't a prediction. It's where the next meaningful cluster of cost-basis support lives if the current range fails. The gap between here and there is a lot of air.

If BTC loses $65,000 on a daily close within the next 7 days, the long-term holder cost-basis cluster at $54K becomes the magnet. If it reclaims $70K instead, the distribution was just profit-taking, not a regime change.

Ethereum's tokenized RWA market topped $17 billion, up nearly 315% year over year, even as the RWA narrative's market cap dropped 16.18% in the past week. — Source: www.theblock.co

2 Ethereum's tokenized RWA market topped $17 billion, up nearly 315% year over year, even as the RWA narrative's market cap dropped 16.18% in the past week.

This is a fascinating split. The actual tokenized assets on Ethereum are exploding in value while the tokens that bet on the RWA narrative are getting crushed. Translation: TradFi is showing up to use the rails, but the speculative layer built on top of that thesis is deflating. It's like a city where real estate values are climbing but the REITs are tanking. The infrastructure is winning. The financialization of the infrastructure is losing. For ETH bulls, this is quietly the most important chart in crypto right now: $17B in real assets choosing your chain is a stronger signal than any token price.

If tokenized RWA value on Ethereum crosses $20B within 30 days while ETH price stays flat, the disconnect between usage and price becomes a screaming value signal. If RWA growth stalls, the narrative tokens were right to sell off.

Crypto slides alongside tech stocks and gold as the Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation turns positive. Memecoins lead altcoin losses with the Meme narrative down 16.44% on the week. — Source: www.coindesk.com

3 Crypto slides alongside tech stocks and gold as the Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation turns positive. Memecoins lead altcoin losses with the Meme narrative down 16.44% on the week.

For months, crypto bulls pointed to BTC's decoupling from tech as proof it was becoming "digital gold." That story just got a rewrite. The correlation flipping positive means BTC is back to trading like a risk asset, not a hedge. And when risk-off hits, the most speculative stuff gets hit hardest. DOGE down 2.69% in 24 hours, meme narrative bleeding 16.44% on the week. The AI narrative is even worse at -22.93%. The only narrative in the green? Prediction Markets at +1.90%. When the only thing going up is people betting on outcomes, that tells you something about conviction levels everywhere else.

If BTC holds above $65K while Nasdaq drops another 2% this week, the correlation is loose and crypto has its own bid. If they fall in lockstep, position sizing should reflect that you're basically long tech with extra steps.

DeFi lender ZeroLend is shutting down after 3 years. TVL fell 98% to $6.6 million. The protocol cited inactive chains, hacks, and unsustainable economics. — Source: www.theblock.co

4 DeFi lender ZeroLend is shutting down after 3 years. TVL fell 98% to $6.6 million. The protocol cited inactive chains, hacks, and unsustainable economics.

A 98% TVL drop is not a slow bleed. That's a protocol getting unplugged from life support. ZeroLend launched across multiple chains, got hacked, watched those chains go quiet, and couldn't make the math work on thin lending margins. This is the DeFi version of a restaurant that expanded too fast, got robbed twice, and then the neighborhood emptied out. The lesson isn't that DeFi lending is broken. Aave V3 is sitting at $26.4B in TVL. The lesson is that DeFi has winner-take-most dynamics, and being the fifth-best lending protocol on the third-best chain is a death sentence.

If other sub-$50M TVL lending protocols start announcing wind-downs in the next 30 days, we're entering a DeFi consolidation wave. If ZeroLend stays an isolated case, it's just natural selection doing its job.

Polygon daily transaction fees flipped Ethereum, driven by a prediction market boom. Meanwhile, Steak 'n Shake says Bitcoin payments boosted same-store sales — Source: cointelegraph.com

5 Polygon daily transaction fees flipped Ethereum, driven by a prediction market boom. Meanwhile, Steak 'n Shake says Bitcoin payments boosted same-store sales "dramatically" over 9 months.

Two very different adoption stories, same punchline: usage is happening in places the crypto-native crowd isn't watching. Polygon flipping Ethereum in daily fees sounds like an L2 victory lap, but the driver is prediction markets, not DeFi or NFTs. That's a narrow use case generating outsized activity. And then there's a burger chain crediting BTC payments for a sales lift. They're even funneling crypto receipts into a corporate bitcoin reserve and using it for employee bonuses. A fast-food chain running a bitcoin treasury strategy in 2026. The adoption isn't coming from where the VCs expected. It's coming from gamblers and cheeseburgers.

If Polygon sustains higher daily fees than Ethereum for a full week, the L1 fee revenue narrative for ETH takes another hit. If it reverts within 48 hours, it was a one-day spike from a single app.

5 Quick Hits

TON Foundation partners with Banxa for APAC stablecoin payments — TON is making a play for Asia-Pacific merchant adoption, a region where stablecoin usage for everyday payments is growing fastest.
SBI Holdings targets majority stake in Singapore exchange Coinhako — Japan's largest financial conglomerate deepening its crypto footprint in Southeast Asia signals institutional appetite hasn't cooled despite the drawdown.
Stablecoin supply hits $300B as global study finds growing everyday use — Cross-border payments, savings, and payroll are driving stablecoin adoption beyond trading. The use case that skeptics said didn't exist is quietly becoming the biggest one.
Kraken backs 'Trump Accounts' for Wyoming newborns — Crypto firms are locking in regulatory goodwill through political and geographic alignment. The strategy is transparent, but it's working.
Trump's Truth Social files for two new crypto ETFs — The Trump family's crypto monetization strategy continues to expand. Whether these ETFs attract real capital or just headlines remains the open question.

Risk Map

🔴 Long-term holder distribution accelerating: On-chain data shows BTC's most patient cohort is selling, not buying. When the "diamond hands" start letting go, the bid underneath thins fast. If this continues for another week, the $65K support level becomes a trapdoor, not a floor.
🔴 BTC-Nasdaq correlation turning positive: Bitcoin just re-coupled with tech stocks right as the risk-off trade deepens. If you're holding BTC as a hedge against equity volatility, that thesis is currently broken. Any further Nasdaq weakness pulls crypto down with it.
🔴 Narrative wipeout with no rotation target: Every major narrative except Prediction Markets is down double digits on the week. When there's nowhere for capital to rotate within crypto, it leaves crypto entirely. Stablecoin supply at $300B is the one bright spot, but that money is sitting, not deploying.

Catalysts (Next 7 Days)

📅 Senate Banking Committee digital asset market structure vote (Week of Feb 17-21): A vote on market structure legislation could reset the regulatory narrative for the entire sector. Progress means clarity for institutional allocators sitting on the sidelines.
📅 Glassnode BTC Market Pulse: Week 9 (~Feb 23): After Week 8 showed BTC stalling at $70K with overhead supply, the next pulse will confirm whether long-term holder distribution is accelerating or stabilizing.
📅 Ethereum Foundation leadership transition updates (Ongoing through Feb): New co-executive director Bastian Aue is setting direction. Any concrete roadmap signals on zkEVM timelines or staking policy could move ETH sentiment.

Sources

Disclosures

Not investment advice. For education only. Crypto is high risk. We may earn affiliate revenue from some links.