Bears are eyeing $60K. Here's the setup.

Lead Change

Forget the -1.8% BTC dip for a second. The real story is what's happening underneath. Glassnode says Bitcoin is stuck in a defensive range between $60K and $72K with an overhead supply wall at $82K-$97K capping any rally attempts. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures all point to shallow demand. Meanwhile, out of ten tracked narratives, only one posted a positive week: Prediction Markets at +5.42%. Everything else bled, with Smart Contract Platforms and DeFi both down over 30% on the 7-day. When the only thing making money is betting on outcomes, that's not a market. That's a casino watching itself in the mirror.

Market Snapshot

Metric	Value	24h Change
BTC	$67,639	▼ -1.82%
ETH	$1,966	▼ -2.86%
SOL	$80.51	▼ -4.28%
Total Market Cap	$2.38T	Risk-off
BTC Dominance	56.8%	Rising
24h Volume	$131.3B	Moderate
Total DeFi TVL	$95.8B	─ Flat

Bitcoin dominance climbing to 56.8% while alts bleed harder tells you capital is rotating defensive, not leaving entirely. $131B in 24h volume is decent but not panicky.

Narratives Snapshot

Narrative	Value	7d Change
Prediction Markets	$3.875B	▲ +5.42%
Real World Assets (RWA)	$50.776B	▼ -11.91%
Gaming (GameFi)	$5.025B	▼ -20.83%
SocialFi	$1.961B	▼ -26.02%
DeFi	$1.697T	▼ -30.82%
Smart Contract Platforms	$1.87T	▼ -30.90%
DePIN	$7.679B	▼ -31.91%

It's a sea of red. Prediction Markets is the lone green narrative at +5.42%.

What Prediction Markets Think

Polymarket is painting a clear picture: 11.5% odds on BTC hitting $74K this week, 5.5% on ETH reaching $2,800 this month. The money is positioned for sideways-to-down.

Market	Prob	Δ 24h	Vol
SIGNAL Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15? Money is giving BTC only an 11.5% chance of touching $74K this week. With price at $67,639, that's a $6,400 gap the market thinks is almost certainly not closing in 3 days. Consistent with the bearish futures positioning.	12% probability	─	$99K volume
VOLUME Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Nearly $1M in volume and only 5.5% probability. Bettors are overwhelmingly saying ETH won't see $2,800 this month. That would require a 42% rally from here. The market is pricing ETH as dead money for February.	6% probability	─	$977K volume
SIGNAL Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January? Only 5.6% chance of a hot CPI print above 2.7%. If this hits, expect a risk-off nuke across all crypto. Low probability, high impact: the definition of a tail risk worth tracking.	6% probability	─	$93K volume

Data from Polymarket prediction markets • Prices reflect real-money bets

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5 Changes That Matter

1 Bitcoin futures data shows bears gearing up for an assault on $60K, with Glassnode confirming structural weakness in the $60K-$72K range.

Two separate signals are saying the same thing, and that's worth paying attention to. Cointelegraph reports bears are positioning in futures for a push toward $60K, while Glassnode's on-chain data shows BTC is stuck in a defensive posture with an overhead supply zone at $82K-$97K that keeps capping rallies. Think of it like a ceiling made of sell orders. Every time price tries to push up, it runs into people who bought higher and just want out. The reactive spot volume and cooling futures Glassnode flagged mean there's no fresh demand cavalry riding in. The bulls aren't losing a battle here. They're just not showing up to fight.

If BTC loses $65,000 on rising volume within the next 7 days, the $60K test becomes the base case. If it holds and reclaims $70K with spot-led buying (not futures leverage), the range holds and bears get squeezed.

BlackRock exec says a 1% crypto allocation in Asia could unlock $2 trillion in new flows. Meanwhile, BlackRock just brought BUIDL T-bill trading to Uniswap. — Source: www.coindesk.com

2 BlackRock exec says a 1% crypto allocation in Asia could unlock $2 trillion in new flows. Meanwhile, BlackRock just brought BUIDL T-bill trading to Uniswap.

Here's the thing about BlackRock: they don't talk about hypotheticals for fun. When a BlackRock exec floats a $2 trillion number at Consensus Hong Kong, that's not a prediction. That's a sales pitch to the room. And the timing matters: the same week, BlackRock listed its tokenized Treasury fund BUIDL on Uniswap, reportedly even buying UNI tokens. They're not just talking about TradFi meeting DeFi. They're building the bridge and walking across it. The second-order question nobody's asking: if BlackRock succeeds in making T-bills tradeable on a DEX, what happens to every other tokenized asset platform that doesn't have Larry Fink's Rolodex?

If BUIDL TVL on Uniswap crosses $100M within 14 days, institutional DeFi adoption just found its template. If volume stays thin, it's a press release, not a product.

Coinbase launched self-custodial wallets built specifically for AI agents, letting bots independently hold funds, trade tokens, and transact onchain. — Source: decrypt.co

3 Coinbase launched self-custodial wallets built specifically for AI agents, letting bots independently hold funds, trade tokens, and transact onchain.

This is one of those announcements that sounds like a gimmick until you think about it for 30 seconds. Coinbase built sandboxed, self-custodial wallets where AI agents can operate autonomously with private keys isolated from each other. Translation: your AI trading bot gets its own bank account that even its creator can't drain. The timing is interesting because Decrypt reports AI builders at major labs are sending warning signals, with some senior researchers walking away from companies like xAI. So we've got the infrastructure for autonomous AI finance arriving at the exact moment the humans building AI are getting nervous about what they're building. That's either poetic or terrifying. Probably both.

If more than 3 major protocols integrate Coinbase's agent wallet SDK within 30 days, this becomes the standard for agentic crypto. If adoption stalls, it's a solution looking for a problem that doesn't exist yet.

Ondo integrates Chainlink data feeds for tokenized US stocks on Ethereum mainnet, while Robinhood launches a testnet for its Arbitrum-based L2 focused on tokenized RWAs. — Source: cointelegraph.com

4 Ondo integrates Chainlink data feeds for tokenized US stocks on Ethereum mainnet, while Robinhood launches a testnet for its Arbitrum-based L2 focused on tokenized RWAs.

Two very different companies, same thesis: real-world assets belong onchain. Ondo is plugging Chainlink oracles into tokenized equities on Ethereum, giving DeFi composability to things like stock price feeds. Robinhood, meanwhile, is building an entire L2 on Arbitrum for tokenized assets. The irony? RWA as a narrative is down -11.91% on the 7-day. The builders are building faster than the market is pricing. That disconnect either means the market is wrong, or the builders are early. History says those are often the same thing.

If Robinhood Chain testnet hits meaningful transaction volume within 14 days and Ondo's tokenized stock feeds see DeFi integrations, the RWA narrative re-prices. If both stay quiet, the -11.91% bleed continues.

Democratic lawmakers slam SEC Chair Atkins over crypto enforcement approach as Paxful gets hit with a $4 million DOJ fine for money laundering failures. — Source: cointelegraph.com

5 Democratic lawmakers slam SEC Chair Atkins over crypto enforcement approach as Paxful gets hit with a $4 million DOJ fine for money laundering failures.

The regulatory picture just got more complicated in both directions. Democrats are publicly attacking SEC Chair Atkins for being too soft on crypto. At the same time, the DOJ just proved it hasn't gone soft at all by fining Paxful $4 million (reduced from a $112 million plea deal because the platform literally couldn't afford more). The message from Washington is schizophrenic: the SEC is loosening the leash while the DOJ is still biting. For builders, this means the "crypto-friendly administration" narrative has an asterisk. The enforcement apparatus didn't get a memo about the vibes shift. Compliance still matters, and the platforms that cut corners are still getting caught.

If Senate Banking moves forward on digital asset market structure legislation within 7 days, the Atkins criticism becomes political theater. If the bill stalls, expect more bipartisan friction to spill into actual enforcement actions.

5 Quick Hits

Charles Hoskinson confirms LayerZero coming to Cardano, Midnight blockchain launching late March — Cardano is making two big interoperability plays at once: cross-chain messaging via LayerZero and a privacy-focused partner chain. ADA still down -2.15% on the day, so the market isn't buying the hype yet.
Sonic Labs hints at acquisitions to vertically integrate core apps and drive value to S token — The high-throughput L1 is taking the "if you can't attract apps, buy them" approach. Bold strategy for a chain that needs to prove it can retain users, not just acquire code.
Tornado Cash developer Roman Semenov added to FBI's Most Wanted list — The privacy debate in crypto just got a lot more personal. Even under a supposedly crypto-friendly administration, building privacy tools can land you on a federal wanted poster.
Tether could become a top 10 T-bill buyer this year, says USAT CEO Bo Hines — The stablecoin giant's appetite for US Treasuries keeps growing. If Tether becomes a top 10 buyer, the "stablecoins fund US debt" narrative goes from talking point to structural reality.
Zerohash adds Monad support to expand USDC stablecoin payments — Another infrastructure provider betting on Monad before it even has a token. The chain is quietly building a payments stack while everyone else argues about memecoins.

Risk Map

🔴 Bearish positioning is getting crowded: Futures data shows bears gearing up for $60K while Polymarket gives BTC only 11.5% odds of reaching $74K. When everyone's on the same side of the boat, the squeeze risk is real. But squeezes need a catalyst, and there isn't one on the calendar.
🔴 Narrative collapse across the board: Seven of the top ten narratives are down 20%+ on the 7-day. That's not sector rotation, that's broad-based risk reduction. When DeFi, Smart Contract Platforms, and DePIN all bleed at the same rate, correlation is spiking. Diversification isn't working.
🔴 Hot CPI print as a tail risk: Polymarket prices inflation above 2.7% at only 5.6%. Low probability, but if it hits, the Fed pause narrative evaporates and risk assets (especially crypto) take a fast leg down. The kind of event that turns an orderly selloff into a disorderly one.

Catalysts (Next 7 Days)

📅 January CPI Data Release (Feb 12-13): Polymarket prices hot inflation (above 2.7%) at only 5.6%. A surprise upside print kills the rate-cut narrative and sends risk assets lower. A cool print could be the catalyst bears aren't expecting.
📅 Senate Banking Committee digital asset market structure progress (This week): With Democrats publicly attacking SEC Chair Atkins, any movement on the market structure bill signals whether crypto regulation is actually advancing or stuck in partisan gridlock.
📅 Midnight blockchain launch window opens (late March) (Late March (announced Feb 12)): Cardano's privacy-focused partner chain goes live. Combined with the LayerZero integration, this is Hoskinson's biggest product cycle in years. ADA's reaction will tell you if the market cares about Cardano again.

Sources

Disclosures

Not investment advice. For education only. Crypto is high risk. We may earn affiliate revenue from some links.